Market Update: Relationship Normalization

Market relationships seem to have normalized: equities to fixed income, volatility to equities and fixed income, forex to the rest of the capital market.  Jack Bouroudjian highlights those relationships and the impact they may have as we head into February. The post Market Update: Relationship Normalization appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets – Market Update: Relationship Normalization

Do Oil Prices Really Predict Gasoline Prices?

With the commencement of a new round of OPEC + Russia crude oil production cuts on January 1, many people are worried about a sudden and crippling rise in the price of gasoline at the pump. The relationship between oil prices and gasoline prices is notoriously hard to track. WTI crude oil prices fell from the high of $76.90 reached on October 3, 2018 to the recent low of $42.36 on December 24, a 45 percent drop. Gasoline prices, however, fell only 17.3 percent in that same time period. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), regular retail gasoline price.

Can the U.S. Dollar Keep its Momentum?

For most global investors, U.S. dollar hedging was the only currency risk management strategy to follow in 2018. The dollar rose against all of its major developed market crosses – by 3.4 percent vs. the euro; 4.5 percent vs. Canadian dollar; 5.1 percent vs. pound sterling; 5.8 percent vs. Australian dollar; and a more modest 0.3 percent vs. the yen. Dollar strength against the supposed darlings of the emerging markets – the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) – was even more marked. The Brazilian real declined 15.1 percent against the USD, the Russian rouble 11.8 percent, Indian rupee 10.4.

Market Update: A Look at Earnings

Earnings projections following the last earnings period were subdued, with input costs expected to rise for many companies. That hasn’t necessarily proven correct this earnings period. Jack Bouroudjian discusses the market result. The post Market Update: A Look at Earnings appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets – Market Update: A Look at Earnings

Market Update: Taking a Breather

Domestic politics, geopolitics and earnings have delivered some bad news lately, leading to a slide in equity markets. Jack Bouroudjian looks at all three, and how they’re having an impact. The post Market Update: Taking a Breather appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets – Market Update: Taking a Breather

Is There A Gold/Bitcoin Correlation?

On November 14, 2018, CME bitcoin futures broke through the important $6,000 support level and lost more than 40 percent of their value in the next 12 days. On that same day gold futures accelerated off their lows and began an explosive 9 percent rally higher. Macro traders and analysts love dependable correlations between asset classes. The desire to spot a corollary trend is so great that maybe, just occasionally, some of us project a relationship before we have the real data to back it up. So gold and bitcoin started significant moves at the same time in opposing directions..

FIA Spoofing, Surveillance & Supervision

The CFTC and futures exchanges continue to aggressively pursue “spoofing” cases against traders. When evidence of criminal willful intent exists, they refer certain matters to the Department of Justice for criminal prosecution. The CFTC settled its first spoofing case in late December 2016. The month prior, the DOJ obtained its first criminal conviction for spoofing. Since that time, the CFTC has expanded its enforcement efforts in this area to target firms for failing to supervise traders being investigated for spoofing activity. With this Webinar, Jim Lundy and Nicholas Wendland from Drinker Biddle & Reath LLP will explore the increased regulatory....

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Event Risk Enters Phase 3: What’s At Stake in 2019?

When will the Fed halt its series of nine rate hikes that began in December 2015, or when will the trade war with China truly end? Questions like these epitomize the changing nature of event risk since 2008 where outcomes could be dragged out instead of being known on set dates. And, this could set the stage for heightened volatility in markets in 2019. [Read More]...

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Chairman’s Letter – Jan 2019

Month-Long Celebrations: National Soup and National Prune Month For some, January is the opening to new beginnings. For the NIBA, it means the continuation of our commitment to our members to provide education for your business growth and a forum in which to exchange ideas. Mark your calendar now to attend the three in-person programs scheduled for 2019: April 10: NIBA Spring Meeting, New York Athletic Club, NYC July 11: 6th Annual DePaul University/NIBA Joint Symposium, DePaul University, Chicago Sept. 12: NIBA Annual Members Meeting, Illinois Tech, Chicago On January 17, the FIA will present a webinar on spoofing, surveillance....

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Why Key Gold and Silver ETFs Are Focusing on Futures

In January, ProShares changed its silver and gold ETFs to track futures-based indexes. This marks the first time leveraged and inverse ETFs will benchmark to gold and silver futures prices. Our silver and gold ETFs (AGQ, ZSL, UGL and GLL) are changing their benchmarks from the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) silver and gold auction prices to Bloomberg Commodity Subindexes. So how did we get here? A number of factors drove us to change the way we obtain exposure for our silver and gold ETFs, but understanding the gold and silver exchange-traded product (ETP) landscape is an important starting point..