The strong job market, low unemployment rate and rising wages are all good signs for the economy, but have posed a rising risk of inflation. To offset this inflation risk, the Federal Reserve has gradually raised interest rates, which has the eventual effect of slowing the economy. This continued rise in interest rates over the last two years has been both good and bad news for consumers. If you are a saver it has been positive; if you’re a borrower it has been painful. The increase in rates affects mortgages, credit cards, home equity loans and car payments to mention.
Frankincense and myrrh may no longer be traditional Christmas gifts, but the appeal of gold endures. For investors, however, the yellow metal lost a little of its luster in 2018. In late December, the gold price was down 4.5 percent ($1,255 per ounce). It had also suffered the indignity of being surpassed by palladium as the most valuable precious metal, something that last happened in 2002 when gold languished at levels around $450/oz. Gold and Real Yields Gold faced three main headwinds in 2018: rising (real) interest rates; a strong U.S. dollar; and, until recently, relatively low levels of equity.
2018 was a phenomenal year for the U.S. dollar as the trade weighted Dollar Index rose more than 9 percent from its low in February. This strength drove all of the major currencies lower from the euro to the Japanese yen and Australian dollar. Nothing mattered more than the market’s appetite for U.S. dollars in 2018. It determined where all of the major currencies were headed and had a significant impact on commodities. That influence on the market won’t change in the year ahead which is why the outlook for the dollar trumps all else. As we begin 2019, here.
A positive U.S. jobs report, dovish comments from the Fed and news on the trade front helped spark a rally in equities. Jack Bouroudjian discusses what it all could mean for equity indexes in 2019. The post Market Update: Perfect Storm for Bulls appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets – Market Update: Perfect Storm for Bulls
The year started right where 2018 left off, with more volatility. Jack Bouroudjian explains why this week’s volatility might be different, and why market participants should watch fund flows and the Fed over the next few trading days. The post Market Update: New Year, More Volatility appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets – Market Update: New Year, More Volatility
The flattening of the yield curve, the rising dollar and hedge fund redemptions are among the factors that will eventually influence market structure. In looking back at this year’s trends, Jack Bouroudjian gives some guidance for what we should watch heading into 2019. The post Market Update: The Factors That Influenced 2018 Markets appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets – Market Update: The Factors That Influenced 2018 Markets
Successful traders do not have a crystal ball.They identify and assess risk and then act accordingly. As 2018 ends and we look forward to 2019, what risks should we concern ourselves with? I am going to concentrate on three main areas of risk for traders in the United States: a continued trade conflict with China, the effect of Brexit on the global economy and stability in the oil producing region of the Middle East specifically with regards to Saudi Arabia. Trade Conflict with China When the current U.S. administration made it clear that there would be a different approach to.