Is There A Gold/Bitcoin Correlation?

On November 14, 2018, CME bitcoin futures broke through the important $6,000 support level and lost more than 40 percent of their value in the next 12 days. On that same day gold futures accelerated off their lows and began an explosive 9 percent rally higher. Macro traders and analysts love dependable correlations between asset classes. The desire to spot a corollary trend is so great that maybe, just occasionally, some of us project a relationship before we have the real data to back it up. So gold and bitcoin started significant moves at the same time in opposing directions..

FIA Spoofing, Surveillance & Supervision

The CFTC and futures exchanges continue to aggressively pursue “spoofing” cases against traders. When evidence of criminal willful intent exists, they refer certain matters to the Department of Justice for criminal prosecution. The CFTC settled its first spoofing case in late December 2016. The month prior, the DOJ obtained its first criminal conviction for spoofing. Since that time, the CFTC has expanded its enforcement efforts in this area to target firms for failing to supervise traders being investigated for spoofing activity. With this Webinar, Jim Lundy and Nicholas Wendland from Drinker Biddle & Reath LLP will explore the increased regulatory....

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Event Risk Enters Phase 3: What’s At Stake in 2019?

When will the Fed halt its series of nine rate hikes that began in December 2015, or when will the trade war with China truly end? Questions like these epitomize the changing nature of event risk since 2008 where outcomes could be dragged out instead of being known on set dates. And, this could set the stage for heightened volatility in markets in 2019. [Read More]...

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Chairman’s Letter – Jan 2019

Month-Long Celebrations: National Soup and National Prune Month For some, January is the opening to new beginnings. For the NIBA, it means the continuation of our commitment to our members to provide education for your business growth and a forum in which to exchange ideas. Mark your calendar now to attend the three in-person programs scheduled for 2019: April 10: NIBA Spring Meeting, New York Athletic Club, NYC July 11: 6th Annual DePaul University/NIBA Joint Symposium, DePaul University, Chicago Sept. 12: NIBA Annual Members Meeting, Illinois Tech, Chicago On January 17, the FIA will present a webinar on spoofing, surveillance....

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Why Key Gold and Silver ETFs Are Focusing on Futures

In January, ProShares changed its silver and gold ETFs to track futures-based indexes. This marks the first time leveraged and inverse ETFs will benchmark to gold and silver futures prices. Our silver and gold ETFs (AGQ, ZSL, UGL and GLL) are changing their benchmarks from the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) silver and gold auction prices to Bloomberg Commodity Subindexes. So how did we get here? A number of factors drove us to change the way we obtain exposure for our silver and gold ETFs, but understanding the gold and silver exchange-traded product (ETP) landscape is an important starting point..

How Rate Changes Could Affect Consumers

The strong job market, low unemployment rate and rising wages are all good signs for the economy, but have posed a rising risk of inflation.  To offset this inflation risk, the Federal Reserve has gradually raised interest rates, which has the eventual effect of slowing the economy. This continued rise in interest rates over the last two years has been both good and bad news for consumers.  If you are a saver it has been positive; if you’re a borrower it has been painful.  The increase in rates affects mortgages, credit cards, home equity loans and car payments to mention.

Market Update: Looking Ahead to CPI

Jack Bouroudjian discusses why today was a breather, and what we should look out for next week, notably the consumer price index. The post Market Update: Looking Ahead to CPI appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets – Market Update: Looking Ahead to CPI

Will Gold Rebound in 2019?

Frankincense and myrrh may no longer be traditional Christmas gifts, but the appeal of gold endures. For investors, however, the yellow metal lost a little of its luster in 2018. In late December, the gold price was down 4.5 percent ($1,255 per ounce). It had also suffered the indignity of being surpassed by palladium as the most valuable precious metal, something that last happened in 2002 when gold languished at levels around $450/oz. Gold and Real Yields Gold faced three main headwinds in 2018: rising (real) interest rates; a strong U.S. dollar; and, until recently, relatively low levels of equity.

Market Update: A V-Shaped Recovery

Jack Bouroudjian discusses what is driving the V-shaped recovery in equity markets, and what it could mean for the weeks ahead. The post Market Update: A V-Shaped Recovery appeared first on OpenMarkets. Source: CME Open Markets – Market Update: A V-Shaped Recovery

Three Currencies to Watch in 2019

2018 was a phenomenal year for the U.S. dollar as the trade weighted Dollar Index rose more than 9 percent from its low in February.  This strength drove all of the major currencies lower from the euro to the Japanese yen and Australian dollar. Nothing mattered more than the market’s appetite for U.S. dollars in 2018. It determined where all of the major currencies were headed and had a significant impact on commodities.  That influence on the market won’t change in the year ahead which is why the outlook for the dollar trumps all else. As we begin 2019, here.